WOOSTER − When Nancy Martinez's husband found a monarch chrysalis, she was elated.
Just a few days earlier, the population of monarch caterpillars living on her milkweed plants fell from 21 to 13, the largest drop in her three years of raising the insects.
"I thought birds and spiders and other insects had gotten to them, but I did research and learned they leave their home to form a chrysalis," Martinez said.
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While the couple, who live behind Wooster Community Hospital, has only found one pupa, she is sure more transforming larvae are hiding around her aptly named "butterfly alley."
Raising monarch caterpillars is a hobby that sparked from the first phase of the pandemic, a love of gardening and neighborly competition, and for the retired third-grade teacher, it is also a way to help save the endangered bug.
The number of North American monarch butterflies has drastically decreased by the millions over the last few decades. From pesticides and herbicides to climate change, the monarch population is in dire straits.
Now, organizations and individuals like Martinez and her neighbors hope to make a difference.
"It's a really enjoyable hobby because we can count the caterpillars and see how they are doing," Martinez said. "They are also endangered, so we're doing our part."
"Butterfly alley" runs along the property line splitting their backyards. Five milkweed plants line a portion of their flower gardens acting as a fence. Surrounding the monarch plants are colorful flowerbeds that attract the pollinator, among other bugs.
The idea to create the garden started in 2020 when Martinez and her neighbor were stuck at home.
"My neighbor bought some milkweed, so I bought some too," she said. "Monarchs had laid eggs on their milkweed but not mine, so I made a sign that welcomes the monarchs to my garden."
Over the next two years, the two neighbors tracked the monarch populations in the gardens to see whose milkweed attracted the most pollinators.
When Martinez counts the caterpillars, she also notes their size and how much milkweed the growing infants have eaten.
"I have four milkweed plants and only one plant has any leaves left on it because of the number of caterpillars," she said.
Her neighbors have one large plant that is between 75% and 80% eaten, by Martinez's estimates. If the pupas keep it up, she may buy more milkweed next year to expand the butterfly garden.
"I want to keep doing it; it's given a retired woman something to do," she said.
And the smile it puts on her grandchildren's faces to watch monarch caterpillars and butterflies grow is all worth it.
North American monarch butterflies are split into two groups: those east of the Rocky Mountains and others to the west of the chain. The former winters in Central Mexico while the latter migrates to coastal California.
Every winter, volunteers count monarch numbers at each wintering spot. The resulting data trend is worrisome to scientists and hobbyists like Martinez.
Since 1997, the population of western monarch butterflies fell by nearly 83%, according to data from the Xerces Society’s Western Monarch organization. That's a nearly 1 million drop in butterflies.
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Data collected from the late 2021 and early 2022 counts surprised many experts like Jennifer Thieme of Monarch Joint Venture in Michigan.
Returning from an all-time low population count over 2020 and early 2021, western monarch populations rose by 250,000 in late 2021 and by 150,000 in early 2022.
"While this is good news, it could easily be a temporary bump," said Thieme, the science coordinator for MJV.
Eastern monarch numbers saw a similar rise in 2019 before falling again.
Experts hope to count six hectares (roughly 15 acres) of overwintering monarchs each year in Central Mexico, she said. In 2019, scientists recorded more than six hectares, but that fell to less than half in the years since.
While there was a small increase this last winter for the eastern branch, Thieme said the population is still under six hectares.
Defying the declining trend of the North American monarch butterfly, populations slightly increased during last winter.
Thieme described butterfly and other insect populations as "bouncy."
Bug demographics fluctuate each year depending on the temperature, rainfall, the quantity and quality of food and severity and frequency of storms, among other factors.
In short, there is no one definitive answer, but Thieme said, the weather may have favored migratory patterns.
"Perhaps the weather supported more milkweed growth so monarchs could produce more offspring, or cooler fall temperatures benefitted the migration," she said.
In the broadest sense, monarch butterflies will not be extinct if the North American branch disappears, Thieme said, as the flittering bug exists across the globe in places like South America, Europe, India, New Zealand and Australia.
But, she said, the loss would damage the ecosystem. Not only are they pollinators that help plants reproduce, they also are food for birds and other predators.
The decline of the North American monarch butterfly began with the mass use of pesticides and herbicides, Thieme said.
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, millions of butterflies died from chemicals and a lack of food as herbicides targeted monarchs' go-to meal and home, milkweed.
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According to one study based in Iowa, the once abundant milkweed plant declined by 58% between 1999 and 2010 in Iowa.
Then climate change caused swings in temperatures and more severe weather, including storms and drought.
"Butterflies are very sensitive to climate, including temperature, precipitation and the changes in vegetation that are linked to these factors," she said. "Too much rain or too much drought or temperatures that are too hot or too cold can kill monarch butterflies or limit how many are in the next generation."
As drought becomes more frequent in the west along both migratory routes, more butterflies are at risk while increasingly frequent severe storms can kill swathes of the insect, she said.
Climate change is likely to change migration times, too, Thieme said.
"Recent research shows that monarchs are migrating south 16-19 days later than they did 30 years ago, at least along the eastern U.S. coast," she said. "This is likely because fall temperatures in that area have risen."
The later monarchs migrate in the year, the less likely many of them will reach their wintering destination.
Because of these factors, the North American branch is nearing quasi-extinction, she said. The population is nearly small enough that one storm could render the eastern migratory branch nearly extinct.
"Right now, the North American migratory populations are in danger of reaching this point. (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) research shows there’s around a 50% to 70% chance of reaching this quasi-extinction level in 60 years," Thieme said.
To improve the butterfly population, Thieme said, governments and companies need to reduce carbon footprints and support native habitats.
For local governments, this can include taking the Mayors' Monarch Pledge, which aims to support native habitats and adapt local weed and mowing laws to support monarchs and other native species.
No Wayne, Ashland, Holmes or Richland county mayors have taken the pledge, according to MJV.
Individuals can plant milkweed and report their observations to groups like Monarch Joint Venture or any local organization.
"Educating others and advocating for positive change like reduced pesticide use and ordinances that support native landscaping are very important," she said.
Ohioans who want to plant milkweed should use species native to Northeastern America like the common, swamp, whorled, butterfly and poke milkweeds, according to Monarch Joint Venture.
When gardening for monarchs, MJV recommends sunny plots with windbreaks while using an array of native plant species.
To attract butterflies colorful red, orange, yellow and purple flowers grouped together work best, according to the organization.
While MJV states that herbicides can be used to eliminate unwanted vegetation, herbicides that leave little residue in the soil like glyphosate should be used.
For more information on pollinator habitats, visit monarchjoinventure.org.
Reach Bryce by email at bbuyakie@gannett.com